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Update on COVID-19 Projections (Presentation)

Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table and Modelling Consensus Table

1,785 views | Published: November 12, 2020

Key indicators of the Pandemic continue to worsen but the impact of the Pandemic varies widely across regions. Other countries have struggled to control spread after allowing strong growth in case numbers in the early Fall. Long-Term Care Home resident mortality is increasing each week. Outbreaks continue to account for 10% of cases, recent research suggests indoor environments where health protection is difficult account for majority of cases. At a 5% rate of growth, our case numbers likely exceed several jurisdictions in Europe that are now in some form of lockdown. ICU occupancy will exceed the 150 bed threshold under any scenario within two weeks. It will exceed 400 beds under the worst scenarios within six weeks. Wastewater tracking suggests that the restrictions had some effect in reducing potential growth.

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